Blake Johnston has worked for his fair share of bookies from Unibet, to UBet and then bet365. He has a unique perspective on horse racing betting and believes certain factors that are traditionally considered by novice bettors as important in are not as significant in predicting the outcome of any given race as the bookies would like the average punter to believe. Key factors such as a horse's last start starting price (SP), are actually significant in predicting the outcome of future races and are usually not taken into consideration from novice bettors, instead focusing on the actual outcome of the race. However, the emphasis that bettors place on an inside draw is exaggerated and the relevance of a wide draw is overplayed in predicting the outcome of a race. Flashing light runs or fast finishing horses to the eye from the back of the field are the horses that inexperienced bettors gravitate toward, but it’s horses that settle closer to the lead speed that are better betting prospects. Additionally, Johnston tells us that horses that have never won at the track or in any given stage of their preparation have a better profit on turnover than those that have.
1. LAST START SP:
One of the factors that Johnston believes is significant is a horse's last start SP. This is the price that the horse started at in its most recent race. Johnston argues that this information is important in predicting the outcome of future races because it provides insight into the horse's expected performance for that race, as many factors during a race can impact the outcome of the event. He believes that the last start SP is actually more important than the result of the race and is a better predictor for the outcome of a future race. Therefore, he advises bettors to pay close attention to a horse's last start SP when making their betting decisions.
Many people can relate to Rugby League and it provides a good example; if the Wests Tigers were to beat the Panthers 18-4 in any given week, would that mean that the Wests Tigers would be favoured to win again the following week?
2. WIDE DRAWS:
Another factor that Johnston believes is overplayed in betting markets are wide draws, more specifically double-figure draws. A wide draw is when a horse is positioned toward the outside of the field at the start of the race. Many bettors believe that this is a disadvantage in which it can be, but it actually provides a better betting opportunity than those who draw low. The betting market gravitates to those horses who have drawn low as it is perceived that wide draws can make it more difficult for the horse to find a good position in running. However, Johnston argues that this is not always the case. He believes that the combination of exaggerated prices for horses drawn wide and the fact that on-speed horses are sometimes better suited to wide draws creates an opportunity for punters. Horses that have drawn low and are slow to begin, have to use more energy to find their settling position and can be cluttered in behind horses if crossed before they have time to recover, while on-speed horses from wide draws can take their time to find their settling position or the lead. Therefore, he advises bettors to look beyond a horse's draw and focus on other factors that are better predictors of potential success.
3. SETTLING POSITION:
When doing his form, Johnston focuses on horses that settle closer to the lead speed as it reduces luck in running impacting the outcome of the race. It is the consensus of betting professionals, and Johnston agrees that these horses are more likely to be in contention at the finish, as they are able to maintain a good position in the run, use less energy to get into into contention at the finish and can control the speed of the race. In a slow speed it is horses that are on speed with a good turn of foot that are advantaged, and this is also the case with a fast pace, which is not the consensus amongst novice punters. It is the belief of these punters that because of the fast lead speed it is horses who are close to that pace who will be disadvantaged and not horses who settle at the tail of the field, but Johnston argues that it’s the other way around. Horses who settle too far from a fast lead speed have to exert too much energy to get into contention prior to the concluding stages and are therefore vulnerable at the finish of the race.
4. TRACK AND DISTANCE STATISTICS:
Horses that have never won at the track or distance are better betting propositions than those who have, because an important element is left out of the form guide when simply looking at this statistic superficially. Most punters will see in the statistics that a horse has won at the track or distance and this influences their betting decisions, but what the form guide doesn’t tell you is the class of the race that it won e.g. a horse that won a benchmark 72 at the track will be given the same credit in the form guide as a horse who won in black-type company. These misleading stats can result in higher odds and better payouts.
5. FIRST AND SECOND-UP STATISTICS:
It’s basically the same theory as above but for different misleading statistics that don’t take into account the class of the race e.g. a horse who won a country maiden on debut will have a first-up win but might not be suited to a midweek metro race fresh in its second preparation. While a horse who is returning for its second preparation that won in the middle of the campaign and ran fourth in the Breeders’ Plate on debut will have no first-up statistics in the form guide, but this horse is much better credentialed to an upcoming Class 1 race at set weights than one that has won a country maiden on debut.
In conclusion, Blake Johnston's unique perspective on horse racing betting challenges traditional beliefs of novice bettors about what factors are important in determining a horse's potential for success in future races. While his approach may not be for everyone as it takes a more in depth approach to form analysis, it is certainly worth considering for those looking to gain an edge in their future horse racing betting.
