The Melbourne Cup
Runner by runner
Our rated price for all 24 runners, a write-up on every horse, live market moves, the speed map and our bets. This is exactly how our members see every race.
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We've rated every runner and turned our ratings into a price for each horse. Where the market is bigger than our price, that's value. Every runner's write-up is below, and our bets for the race are at the bottom of the page.
Our rated price for every runner against the live fixed price. Overs means the market is at least 15% bigger than our price, Unders means it's at least 13% shorter, and Even is in between. Tap a horse for its write-up.
| Runner | Our price | Market | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| #12 Hopewell Rock | $7.50 | $10.00 | Overs |
| #20 Point Of Law | $7.50 | $6.50 | Even |
| #10 Goodie Two Shoes | $14 | $26.00 | Overs |
| #4 Middle Earth | $16 | $15.00 | Even |
| #2 Trustyourinstinct | $16 | $8.50 | Unders |
| #22 Mr Monaco | $16 | $26.00 | Overs |
| #6 Enfjaar | $17 | $23.00 | Overs |
| #24 Shockletz | $21 | $9.50 | Unders |
| #18 James J Braddock | $23 | $19.00 | Unders |
| #16 So You Are | $26 | $13.00 | Unders |
| #23 Zakouma | $26 | $26.00 | Even |
| #1 Sons And Lovers | $31 | $19.00 | Unders |
| #11 Juja Kibo | $31 | $12.00 | Unders |
| #14 Soul Of Spain | $31 | $31.00 | Even |
| #15 Zahrann | $31 | $26.00 | Unders |
| #17 Future History | $51 | $51.00 | Even |
| #3 Knight's Choice | $67 | $34.00 | Unders |
| #7 Royal Supremacy | $67 | $51.00 | Unders |
| #19 Kizlyar | $71 | $41.00 | Unders |
| #8 Wine Dark Sea | $81 | $41.00 | Unders |
| #5 Vauban | $91 | $51.00 | Unders |
| #9 Asterix | $126 | $51.00 | Unders |
| #21 Strictly Business | $201 | $61.00 | Unders |
| #13 Onesmoothoperator | $501 | $61.00 | Unders |
Market prices as at Monday 2 November.
Speed map
Stewards report (last start) · 12
Gear changes · 12
Each runner with our rated price, the live price and how the market has moved since it opened. Our bets are at the bottom.
Second in the Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown last start, behind a horse that led all the way. He won a Group 2 at Longchamp over 2800m in July. He's topweight with 57.5kg. Dylan Browne McMonagle rides from barrier 3 for Joseph O'Brien. A sound stayer, but the weight makes it hard.
Gear: Winkers first time, Equicast first time
- Topweight with 57.5kg. The last topweight to win was Gold Trip (2022), also with 57.5kg.
- Three of the last nine winners came straight from a run overseas: Rekindling (2017), Cross Counter (2018) and Twilight Payment (2020).
- Barrier 3 hasn't produced a winner in the last 21 Cups.
- Joseph O'Brien has won the Cup twice: Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020).
Won the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m in July, coming from four lengths back at the 300m. Fourth in the Irish St Leger last start behind the top-class Scandinavia. A genuine stayer, and James McDonald rides 57kg from barrier 18 for Joseph O'Brien. On our numbers the market has him a bit short, but he's in our exotics.
Gear: Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time
- Fourth in the Irish St Leger last start. Twilight Payment won the 2020 Cup after running third in that race.
- Three of the last nine winners came straight from a run overseas: Rekindling (2017), Cross Counter (2018) and Twilight Payment (2020).
- Barrier 18 produced its first winner in 161 runnings when Verry Elleegant won in 2021.
- Joseph O'Brien has won the Cup twice: Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020).
- James McDonald won the Cup on Verry Elleegant in 2021.
Won this race two years ago at $91 and hasn't won since. He ran third in the Herbert Power, beaten 0.21 lengths, but finished 14th in the Caulfield Cup last start. Robbie Dolan rides 56.5kg from barrier 2. He'd need a return to his best.
- Trying to become just the sixth horse to win the Cup twice, after Archer, Peter Pan, Rain Lover, Think Big and Makybe Diva.
- Robbie Dolan won the 2024 Cup on him at his first Cup ride, and rides him again.
- Barrier 2 hasn't produced a winner in the last 21 Cups.
- Sheila Laxon has trained two Cup winners: Ethereal (2001) and Knight's Choice (2024).
Third in this race last year with 54.5kg, closing well. This preparation he's raced in the Underwood, Turnbull, Caulfield Cup (9th) and Cox Plate (8th), with all of it aimed at today. He carries 56.5kg, two more than last year. Mark Zahra rides from barrier 1 for Ciaron Maher. Proven at the race, and he's in our Top 4.
- Third in this race last year from barrier 13.
- Barrier 1 last produced the winner in 2015: Prince Of Penzance at $101.
- Mark Zahra has won two of the last four Cups: Gold Trip (2022) and Without A Fight (2023).
- Ciaron Maher won the Cup with Gold Trip in 2022 (with David Eustace).
Sixth in this race last year, and unplaced in his past three Cups. Ninth in the Geelong Cup on his return. Jordan Childs rides 56.5kg from barrier 22. On our numbers his best is behind him.
Gear: Tongue tie again
- This is his fourth Melbourne Cup: 14th in 2023, 11th in 2024 and 6th last year.
- No horse aged nine or older has ever won the Cup.
- Barrier 22 hasn't produced a winner in the last 16 Cups.
Third in the Caulfield Cup, beaten a length after sitting handy from barrier 1 and fighting on. He won the Group 3 Glorious Stakes at Goodwood before that. His Caulfield Cup run is among the best lead-up form in the race. The 3200m is new, as he hasn't raced past 2412m. Ray Dawson rides 56kg from barrier 8 for Roger Varian.
Gear: Equicast first time
- Third in the Caulfield Cup last start. Delta Blues won the 2006 Cup after running third at Caulfield.
- The Caulfield Cup is the best lead-up: 7 of the last 26 winners (2000–2025) ran in it, most recently Half Yours last year.
- Barrier 8: Half Yours won from it last year, the first winner drawn in 8 since at least 1958.
Led and won the JRA Cup at Caulfield in September, then led in the Caulfield Cup and was beaten before the turn, finishing 15th. Ben Allen rides 56kg from barrier 21 for Ciaron Maher. Needs a big turnaround.
- Ran 15th in this race last year.
- The Caulfield Cup is the best lead-up: 7 of the last 26 winners (2000–2025) ran in it, most recently Half Yours last year.
- Barrier 21 last produced the winner in 2019: Vow And Declare.
- Ciaron Maher won the Cup with Gold Trip in 2022 (with David Eustace).
Raced up on the speed from a wide draw in the Caulfield Cup and tired to finish 11th. He won the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer at Newbury in August. Damian Lane rides 56kg from barrier 23, another wide draw. Well outside the main chances on our numbers.
Gear: Equicast first time, front concussion plates again
- The Caulfield Cup is the best lead-up: 7 of the last 26 winners (2000–2025) ran in it, most recently Half Yours last year.
- Barrier 23 hasn't produced a winner in the last 21 Cups.
Finished 12th in the Caulfield Cup after being slow away and hampered. He ran third in the Naturalism before that. Jye McNeil rides 55kg from barrier 6 for Chris Waller. Needs to improve a lot.
- Only three 8yos have ever won the Cup: Toryboy (1865), Catalogue (1938) and Twilight Payment (2020).
- The Caulfield Cup is the best lead-up: 7 of the last 26 winners (2000–2025) ran in it, most recently Half Yours last year.
- Knight's Choice drew barrier 6 in 2024 but jumped from 5 after a scratching. No horse has won from gate 6 since Light Fingers in 1965.
- Chris Waller won the Cup with Verry Elleegant in 2021.
Second in this race last year with 51.5kg. She has 55kg this time but she comes in with better form: she won the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over 2816m in August. She was last of 10 at Leopardstown last start, but she settled well back in a race where the leader won, and we're forgiving it. Wayne Lordan rides from barrier 19 for Joseph O'Brien. The market has her at a big price, which is why she's a win bet.
Gear: Front concussion plates off first time
- Second in this race last year from barrier 20. In the last 20 years only Fiorente has gone one better the year after running second (2nd in 2012, won in 2013).
- Only 12 mares have won the Cup (14 wins). The last was Verry Elleegant in 2021.
- Only three 8yos have ever won: Toryboy (1865), Catalogue (1938) and Twilight Payment (2020).
- Joseph O'Brien has won the Cup twice: Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020).
Won the Metropolitan at Randwick, then the Moonee Valley Gold Cup on Cox Plate Day with a strong run from off midfield. He drops from 58kg to 55kg. Sam Clipperton rides from barrier 14 for Ciaron Maher. He's in great form, but he hasn't raced past 2500m and the market has caught on. On our numbers he's too short.
- Won the Metropolitan this spring. The last horse to win the Metropolitan and then the Cup was Macdougal in 1959.
- No horse has won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the Melbourne Cup in the same year since Kingston Rule in 1990.
- Barrier 14 has produced two of the last 21 winners: Makybe Diva (2005) and Gold Trip (2022).
- Ciaron Maher won the Cup with Gold Trip in 2022 (with David Eustace).
Our top pick. A lightly raced import with only 10 starts. Two back he won a handicap at Goodwood, beating Small Fry while giving him 4.5kg. Small Fry ran second to the favourite Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup, so his form lines up well with the best of the locals. Then he ran second in the Ebor at York, beaten a short margin after being about six lengths off them on the turn. He travels into his races beautifully, and with 54.5kg we think he's beaten the handicapper. The knock is that he comes in without a run in Australia, and imports without a local lead-up have a poor recent Cup record. His ratings are good enough to cover that. Zac Lloyd rides from barrier 15 for George Boughey.
Gear: Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time
- Three of the last nine winners came straight from a run overseas: Rekindling (2017), Cross Counter (2018) and Twilight Payment (2020).
- Barrier 15 hasn't produced a winner in the last 21 Cups.
- Neither George Boughey nor Zac Lloyd has won a Melbourne Cup.
Ran 16th in this race last year. He's finished well back in all three runs this preparation, including 11th in the Geelong Cup. Blinkers go on. Declan Bates rides 54.5kg from barrier 13. Our lowest-rated runner.
Gear: Blinkers first time
- This is his third Melbourne Cup: 12th in 2024 and 16th last year.
- No horse aged nine or older has ever won the Cup.
- Barrier 13 last produced the winner in 2011: Dunaden.
Eighth in the Caulfield Cup, beaten 4.7 lengths after being tightened for room early and overracing. Before that he was third in the King Town Stakes and seventh in the Metropolitan. Tommy Berry rides 54.5kg from barrier 5 for Chris Waller. Not a likely winner, but he can run a place in this company.
- The Caulfield Cup is the best lead-up: 7 of the last 26 winners (2000–2025) ran in it, most recently Half Yours last year.
- Barrier 5 produced back-to-back winners: Green Moon (2012) and Fiorente (2013).
- Chris Waller won the Cup with Verry Elleegant in 2021.
Won the Group 3 Naturalism at Caulfield in September, then dropped out on the heavy track in the Turnbull. Sixth in the Caulfield Cup after drifting back, running one of the fastest last 400m. Blinkers go on for the first time. Ben Melham rides 54.5kg from barrier 11 for Ciaron Maher. He needs to find more over 3200m.
Gear: Blinkers first time
- The Caulfield Cup is the best lead-up: 7 of the last 26 winners (2000–2025) ran in it, most recently Half Yours last year.
- Barrier 11 last produced the winner in 2014: Protectionist.
- Ciaron Maher won the Cup with Gold Trip in 2022 (with David Eustace).
Four wins in a row, the latest in the Bendigo Cup six days ago. He races on the pace, drops from 58.5kg to 54kg and has a good draw in barrier 7 with Rachel King riding for Bjorn Baker. The 3200m is new and he's backing up quickly. His ratings are good, but they don't put him in the top group here. Too short for us to back to win, but he's in our exotics.
- Won the Bendigo Cup last start. No Cup winner since at least 2000 has come out of the Bendigo Cup; High Emocean ran third in 2022 after winning it.
- Barrier 7 hasn't produced a winner in the last 21 Cups.
- Rachel King would be the third woman to ride the winner, after Michelle Payne (2015) and Jamie Melham (2025).
Ninth in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup after covering a lot of ground from barrier 14. Before that he ran second in the JRA Cup and fourth in the Herbert Power. Jamie Melham rides 53.5kg from barrier 12. Ran 15th in this race in 2023. Looks to be racing for minor money.
- Ran 15th in this race in 2023.
- No horse aged nine or older has ever won the Cup.
- No horse has won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the Melbourne Cup in the same year since Kingston Rule in 1990.
- Barrier 12 last produced the winner in 2020: Twilight Payment.
A lightly raced stayer with seven starts. He ran third in the Epsom Derby in June, then sixth in the Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown last start. He gets in with 53.5kg. Craig Williams rides for Joseph O'Brien, but he's drawn the widest gate, barrier 24. He's in our exotics.
Gear: Ear muffs (pre-race only) first time
- Barrier 24: the last horse to win after drawing 24 was Brew in 2000.
- Last 4yo to win: Vow And Declare (2019), ridden by Craig Williams, who rides him.
- Joseph O'Brien has won the Cup twice: Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020).
Won over 4013m at Royal Ascot in June, so the trip won't trouble him. He was backed into $3.80 favourite for the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but finished 11th after sitting just off the pace. Winkers go on. Beau Mertens rides 53.5kg from barrier 20 for Joseph O'Brien. Hard to have after that run.
Gear: Winkers first time
- Barrier 20 has never produced a winner by original draw since at least 1958. Goodie Two Shoes ran second from it last year.
- No horse has won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the Melbourne Cup in the same year since Kingston Rule in 1990.
- Joseph O'Brien has won the Cup twice: Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020).
Won the Geelong Cup on 21 October, racing on the pace and fighting all the way. Three wins from five starts, and he drops from 55kg to 53kg. That Geelong run was a big step up on his English form, and lightly raced horses don't always back that up straight away, but he's clearly improving. Ethan Brown rides from barrier 9 for Ciaron Maher. We have him equal top-rated, but the market already has him favourite, so he's in our Top 4 and exotics rather than a win bet.
Gear: Standard bit first time, lugging bit off first time
- Won the Geelong Cup last start. Three of the last 26 winners came out of the Geelong Cup, most recently Dunaden (2011).
- Barrier 9: the last winner drawn there was Viewed in 2008.
- Ciaron Maher won the Cup with Gold Trip in 2022 (with David Eustace).
A VRC Oaks winner who hasn't been near her best this preparation: 14th, 12th, then last of 16 in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Dean Yendall rides 53kg from barrier 4. Hard to make a case.
- Only 12 mares have won the Cup (14 wins). The last was Verry Elleegant in 2021.
- No horse has won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the Melbourne Cup in the same year since Kingston Rule in 1990.
- Barrier 4 last produced the winner in 2017: Rekindling.
Won the Bart Cummings here on a heavy track, then ran third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, beaten 0.75 lengths after racing keenly and his apprentice losing the whip. He drops from 57.5kg to 52.5kg. Jabez Johnstone keeps the ride for Ciaron Maher, from barrier 16. Rates well on our numbers, and rain would suit him. He's in our exotics.
- Won the Bart Cummings over 2520m here. The last horse to win the Bart Cummings and then the Cup was Almandin in 2016.
- No horse has won the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and the Melbourne Cup in the same year since Kingston Rule in 1990.
- Barrier 16 last produced the winner in 2023: Without A Fight.
- Ciaron Maher won the Cup with Gold Trip in 2022 (with David Eustace).
Last of 11 in the Crystal Mile last start, but 1600m was far too short for him. Before that he ran fifth in the Herbert Power and sixth in the Naturalism, both solid. William Pike rides 52kg from barrier 10 for Grahame Begg. He's been set for this and looks a place chance. He's in our exotics.
- Barrier 10 produced back-to-back winners: Delta Blues (2006) and Efficient (2007).
- Neither Grahame Begg nor William Pike has won a Melbourne Cup.
Won the Archer Stakes here in September, then closed well in the Herbert Power and ran second in the Tesio Stakes. She drops to 51kg. Harry Coffey is booked, subject to fitness. The market loves her, but she's never raced past 2500m and her ratings fall short of the top group. Too short on our numbers to back to win, but she's in our exotics.
- Only 12 mares have won the Cup (14 wins). The last was Verry Elleegant in 2021.
- Won the Archer Stakes here in September. Brew (2000) and Shocking (2009) both won the Archer, then run on Derby Day, on the way to their Cup wins.
- Barrier 17 last produced the winner in 2016: Almandin.
- Ciaron Maher won the Cup with Gold Trip in 2022 (with David Eustace).
Both are well over our rated price. Our top two on value.
Hopewell Rock, Goodie Two Shoes, Point Of Law, Middle Earth.
2nd: 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23
3rd: 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23
180 combinations. A $180 outlay is a 100% bet; $20 gets you 11.1% of the dividend.
2nd: 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23
3rd: 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23
4th: 12-10-20-4-2-22-6-24-18-16-23
1440 combinations. A $1440 outlay is a 100% bet; $20 gets you 1.4% of the dividend.
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